Global Lead, The B2B Institute
Does more data lead to better decisions?
In order to answer that question, let’s go to the horse races for the afternoon.
In a famous study, Professor Paul Slovic gave a group of professional gamblers 5 more datapoints for each successive race – starting with 0 datapoints for the first race and ending with 40 datapoints for the final race — and he tracked how accurate the bets were.
What Professor Slovic found was extremely interesting:
• First, having 5 datapoints was better than having no datapoints. The gamblers were more accurate — and confident — with some datapoints.
• Second, as the gamblers got more data, they became more confident in their accuracy, but their bets did not, in fact, get more accurate
• Third, the gamblers’ confidence increased every time they were given more datapoints – they were twice as confident with 40 datapoints as they were with …